We live in complex, disturbing and uncertain conditions. The world has changed dramatically and continues to change, and therefore, of course, I would like to know the vector that determines the main direction in a wide range of changes. The idea of progress, warming the hearts and minds of people for so long, turned out to be a myth. Firstly, progress has touched only science, technology, technology, but has by no means affected the social sphere, and even more so, the spiritual one. Moreover, scientific and technological progress turned into social, political, economic and spiritual tragedies that affected everyone.
The question put on the agenda is not about a bright progressive future, but about the possibility of a future in general. A. A. Zinoviev noticed the essential need for all people to believe in the future and at least imagine it in general terms. Perhaps, in the aspect of faith, this is something that concerns all people, and at all times this is an essential feature of a person. Here is how A. A. Zinoviev himself speaks about this, and he speaks in relation to people of a “bright future”, which is losing this faith: “People's life depends on how they imagine the future, not only of their own and their loved ones, but also of their descendants, and even the entire human community to which they belong.
For many, even the future of all mankind is an important factor in their existence. People in the past endured terrible suffering thanks to the belief in the heavenly paradise of religion, and in the 19th and 20th centuries thanks to the belief in the earthly paradise. We are deprived of such faith in the future. Moreover, we live with the certainty that neither an earthly paradise during life nor a heavenly paradise after death awaits us and our descendants in the future. We live in fear of the horrors of the future. We need to restore people's faith in a better future.”
The spiritual elite of modern humanity is intensively engaged in the search for options for a possible future. Quite a significant number of thinkers have come to a disappointing conclusion: there is no future for mankind if it develops in the same spirit as it is happening; at best, humanity will last another 40-60 years.
Fortunately, others have not been so pessimistic, believing that “people will continue to use their innate abilities and intelligence to create rules that serve their long-term interests and needs. Human beings have been doing this for tens of thousands of years, so it would be strange if they stopped doing it at the end of the 20th century.” .
V. I. Vernadsky substantiated the theory of the noosphere as an objective and necessary sphere of the mind that is built on the basis of the biosphere. There is also encouragement in the belief that “as long as we can imagine other alternatives, all is not lost; as long as we can consult with each other and plan together, there is still hope.”
Of course, we are simply doomed to realize the kind of society we live in, that our social life has deteriorated, that people “behave in self-destructive ways, and that they need to actively work to recreate the norms of their society through discussion, evidence, cultural arguments, and even culture wars.
In modern society, new, or high, as D. Naisbit says, technologies play an increasingly important role: computer, gene, nanotechnologies. Humanity is fascinated by their success and therefore either idolizes them or hates them, horrified by the consequences, but in both cases treating them unreasonably. High technologies must be associated with deep humanity, and then they will serve us, and not disfigure us, says J. Naisbit [see. 4] “Discussion and public understanding increase our chances of acting wisely and prudently in the form of emerging genetic technologies,” says J. Naisbit.
At all times, the great representatives of mankind have tried to imagine what the future of society will be like. While social life was relatively healthy, the future was painted in rainbow colors, and this found its expression in optimistic models that are presented in social, technocratic, socialist and communist utopias (Plato, T. More, T. Campenella, T. Münzer, F. Bacon, R. Owen, K. Marx, F. Engels).
As the health of society worsened, its social, economic, political and spiritual ailments increased, there was some sobering up, discouraging and even shocking models of a possible future appeared in the 20th century: D. Orwell, O. Huxley, N. Zamyatin demonstrated the logical conclusion of communism and capitalism , equally “unattractive and unacceptable” (D. Orwell “1984”; N. Zamyatin “We”, O. Huxley “Brave New World”).
With the collapse of communism, “de-ideologized concepts of the future” are built to a certain extent. Among them, attention should be paid to the concept of A. A. Zinoviev, a well-known and prominent philosopher of the second half. In the 20th and early 21st centuries, since he knew both communism and capitalism very well, “from the inside”. In his works “On the Way to Supersociety” and in the sociological-futuristic novel “Bright Future”, A. A. Zinoviev speaks of the future “supersociety” as such a social device that loses the features of sociality and essentially goes beyond society, turns into a monster . This “future society is not only a society of moral, mental and intellectual freaks, as our society already is, but also of physical freaks. Atomic tests, artificial food, poisoned nature, bacteriological, genetic and other experiments are the reason for this.
M. Weller, in the spirit of the ideas of synergetics, substantiates in his futurological-philosophical essay “Cassandra” the idea of the inevitability of the destruction of modern society by the people themselves for the emergence of a fundamentally new community that meets the laws of establishing a new system in the world with all its inherent attributes.
That is why a person is endowed with superabundant energy, which he will embody in the explosion or undermining of the social organism as an already outdated and collapsing system. F. Fukuyama writes about the “great break” experienced by modern humanity, which also contains the idea of completing the current history, the end of it, and characterizes a person, the “last man” as he is expressed in this story, endowed with a thymotic beginning, which is lost in modern times .
E. Fromm, an outstanding thinker of the twentieth century. in a number of his works, he holds the idea that people have not yet experienced real, genuine real history as a truly human being, they live in prehistory, cannibalistic, according to his description.
K. Marx also assumed that only in the future will humanity be able to live like a human being, only in the communist future will true history begin. Note that E. Fromm partly shared Marxist ideas. It was E. Fromm, a philosopher and psychologist, who diagnosed modern society as unhealthy, sick.
What led mankind to a break, the end of history, to a painful state, which was expressed in the alienation of people from nature, society and themselves, in dehumanization, moral degradation, in the degradation of rationality, and, as a result, in the loss of humanity?
E. Fromm, who diagnosed the modern sick society and was convinced of the possibility of recreating, resuscitating a healthy society, warned: “a dehumanized person very soon loses not only feelings, but also his mind, and in his madness even the instinct of self-preservation” .
Man becomes a robot to man, man dies like a man, states E. Fromm.
The entire genetic pool of humanity can be changed, echoes J. Naisbitt, a person can be turned into anything. The last person remains in the prehistory of society according to F. Fukuyama. The reasons lie in the organization of society in all aspects of its existence. In the economy, this is an unrestrained and frantic pursuit of profit, which has led to the fact that the economy has outgrown its direct purpose - to serve the vital needs of people and began to serve their unhealthy super-needs. In politics, the desire for power in the name of power itself has prevailed. In the social sphere, the weakening of ties, their destruction and perversion. A crushing fall is taking place in the spiritual realm: demoralization, alienation, the growth of aggression, the cult of pleasure have permeated art, science has lost all moral components and has become an end in itself. Religion gave up its positions, focusing on the field of worship and organization and leaving faith on the periphery in its spiritual focus.
Technology broke out from under the power of man, and man did not have the wisdom and courage to keep it as a means, setting its limits and measure.
In general, it can be stated, agreeing with A. A. Zinoviev, that in the second half of the 20th century, ideas about the measure were lost in all spheres of human activity, an unrestrained and total violation of the measure began, which became the norm, which means that the measure as a way and condition of normal life ceased to be accepted into account. with. Weller also notes this immensity when he writes about outrageous humanism, about unlimited freedom, which distorted and mutilated the social and moral sphere. People have been given the opportunity to enjoy beyond measure, to consume beyond measure, to have fun beyond measure, to fulfill themselves in everything and everywhere beyond measure.
Technology has burst into our lives, the measures of application of which we do not know and do not want to know. So, “intelligent technology has invaded areas where it is completely unnecessary. The vital problems in these areas are not mathematical and technical problems ... The ordinary human mind is more than sufficient here. The decisive role is played by the desires and will of counterparties, and not by finding some optimal options. The use of intellectual technology here creates the illusion of the importance of the mind, masks the banality of the case and provides an excuse for dishonorable acts. Serious researchers have long established that in ninety cases out of a hundred, when the most complex intellectual technology is used, one can, in principle, do without it. … you can’t work out a scientific understanding of society in any computers and with any empirical data. What is needed here is not a computer mind, which is a hypertrophy of only individual properties of the human intellect, and the simplest ones, but a mind of a completely total type, a creative, wide, multifaceted, flexible, dialectical mind. Computer thinking has killed the living fabric of knowledge and creativity. Humanity has loaded a huge mass of stupidity, ignorance, obscurantism into artificial intelligence. In understanding our society, our life and ourselves, we found ourselves at the level of our primitive ancestors, ”A. A. Zinoviev summarizes bitterly.
The immeasurable desire to modernize everything was expressed in the naive and dangerous idea that “modern progress should not follow the path of adapting its achievements to humanity, but the path of adapting man to his achievements” .
The oversaturation of information through the same intellectual information technology levels out our natural differences and lowers the intellectual level. In principle, people can know everything, but this excludes any need for understanding.
A paradoxical situation has arisen: everything that is supposed to help people become better impoverishes, demobilizes, paralyzes, stupefies, deadens people. Instead of "homo sapiens", "homo moralicus", "homo pulchris", we have "homo mechamicus", "homo consumeris", "homo economicus". Man gradually turned into a being endowed with superhuman strength; but at the same time he does not demonstrate the highest reasonableness; as his power and capabilities increase, he does not become happier, but turns into an unhappy creature; left to himself, winning freedom, flees from it. The second reason for the current situation is the distortion, the transfer of the efforts of mankind, its intellectual and vital capital to the sphere of material, technical, economic, political. There was a prejudice that the task of paramount importance is to create material conditions for a person, to provide comfort, convenience, and if this is achieved, a moral and spiritual order will be arranged and formed by itself.
No one argues that normal conditions are necessary for a normal life. “As long as people spend their main energy on protecting their lives from encroachment and on not dying of hunger, the love of life will wither away,” notes E. Fromm. And further: “a person will become truly human only in an atmosphere in which he can hope that he himself and his children will survive next year and will live many years later” .
But who and when argued that a person should choke on material goods, or complacency in satiety, contentment and serene security?
Mankind is obsessed with the political reorganization of society in a democratic aspect. It is often forgotten that democracy is not a panacea, and far from being the best way to organize social life, which has been proclaimed more than once in philosophy and political science, starting from Plato and Aristotle.
“It is impossible to separate the change in our industry and political organization from the change in the structure of our education and our culture. Not a single serious attempt at change or transformation will be successful if it does not affect all areas at the same time, ”says E. Fromm quite rightly.
Reorganization and changes concern just the political, economic, economic, technical spheres, and the sphere of culture and education is experiencing the negative consequences of the thoughtless transfer of these changes, which has already been discussed. The market, democracy and technical innovations have distorted the sphere of culture and education, removed from them the opportunity to develop according to the laws of their genre: art has become commercialized and simplified, morality has been forced into the area of personal life, education has become technicalized. “At present, moral behavior can still be found in the concrete life of many individual people, while in general society is moving in friendly ranks towards barbarism,” E. Fromm does not state. And Zinoviev A. A. always emphasizes the lack of moral feelings among the bearers of Western civilization - Westernoids - and the simulation of moral behavior in cases where it is beneficial for them. The very goal of social development, which was formulated by our predecessors, has been distorted: everything is in the name of man, for his good.
“We are much more in need of the revival of man than in aircraft and television,” E. Fromm wrote back in the middle of the twentieth century. (Now one could add that we do not really need computers, mobile communications and other technical fun). “If at least a grain of reason and practical sense used in the natural sciences were applied to the solution of human problems, then this would allow us to continue the task that was the pride of our predecessors in the eighteenth century.” The development of science, technology, technology, industry cannot be stopped, and it would be foolish to try to do so. Industrial and scientific-technical Luddism did not justify itself.
Science and technology should not be feared and should not be idolized. They must be curbed and eventually controlled, which is within the power of mankind.
In addition, these areas, which are so important in the life of modern society, must be humanized. E. Fromm spoke about “humanistic industrialism”, about the fact that we must preserve the industrial method, but we must decentralize labor and the state in order to give them humane proportion, J. Naisbitt, A. Schweitzer about the need to remain human and not go beyond humanity , A. A. Zinoviev warned against the transformation of a person into a superman as a degenerate person.
Education now aims to create a person of organization” and leaves aside the need to teach a person to live like a human being, that is, responsibly and freely, realizing himself and his essence to the maximum, in a state of love for life and all its manifestations; to teach to be actively collaborating citizens.
A person has all the grounds and potential opportunities for this, they only need to be released, and not to be engaged in his artificial construction, with the help of various kinds of technologies, including political technologies.
The desire to find new ideas and put forward slogans is also futile. All ideas have long been formulated. “We do not need new ideals or new spiritual goals. The great teachers of mankind have already formulated the norms of a healthy human life, since the idea of the unity of the human race and its destiny was first born, the ideas and ideals of mankind were basically the same”, and “people do not need slogans, but individuals who have wisdom, strong convictions, and the determination to act on those convictions. These words of E. Fromm contain both the idea of the uselessness of spells in the process of education, and the specific task of focusing on the best representatives of humanity, its spiritual elite.
Slogans are offered by ideology, which, according to A. A. Zinoviev, is a means of fooling people, turning them into some kind of standardized and necessary individuals for the system. Ideology creates forms (cells) a priori in relation to a person, through the prism of which a person perceives and must perceive the world. Ideology is inevitable, but modern ideologies have degenerated in the same way as many other phenomena of socio-spiritual life, or have been crushed, as they have been perverted by epigones. It so happened that "the masses of people have always lived, live and will live in ideological and psychological delirium."
To break out of this state of delirium, “we need to take seriously what we believe in, what we teach and what we preach ... Instilling in people the basic ideals and norms of our civilization is primarily the task of education,” insists E. Fromm. Therefore, the purpose of education should be the formation of a person, reasonable and moral.
A. Schweitzer and E. Fromm quite rightly and honestly wrote that society is afraid of the individual, since it is a means of expressing the spirit and truth with which it (society) would like to shut up, and that, unfortunately, the power of society is just as great like this fear.
And since it is society that builds a specific and necessary system of education and upbringing, we have to state with regret that modern education cannot form a full-fledged personality. Once humanity was carried away by the study and transformation of nature for its own purposes and then naturally, automatically transferred its boundless enthusiasm to man, and now it is ready to transform man, interfering with his genetic code. In the past, they tried to change a person in the social aspect, with less than meager knowledge about him.
Even nature should be carefully and prudently changed, taking into account all the expected consequences, carefully weighing all the pros and cons, not to mention man.
Taking on a person, they also look at him in a consumerist and rascally way, which is completely unacceptable. Those of the people who irresponsibly and recklessly encroach on human nature, not only exceed their powers, which should always be limited in a normal society, but, threatening the human being that has developed over millions of years, manifests itself as “subhuman”. And healthy forces and courageous people, their bearers, who will be able to repulse such moral, spiritual freaks, must appear in society. Until a deep awareness of the need for a careful and humane attitude towards a person, preserving him as a person, the disastrous desire to remake a person for the sake of someone else's goals, eradicate his human nature from him, society will not be able to secure its own life and future. Only man can and should be the goal of social development.
Literature
1. Vemer M. Cassandra. – M.: AST, 2007.
2. Zinoviev A. A. On the way to supersociety. – M.: Astrel, 2008.
3. Zinoviev A. A. Bright future. - M., AST, 2006.
4. Naisbit J. High technology, deep humanity. – M.: AST, Transitbook, 2005.
5. Fromm E. Healthy society. – AST: Guardian. - M., 2006.
6. Fromm E. To have or to be. - AST: Moscow, 2008.
7. Fukuyama F. Great gap. - M .: AST, ZAO NPP "Ermak", 2004.
8. Fukuyama F. The End of History and the Last Man. - AST, Moscow: Keeper, 2007.
annotation
L. I. Zinnurova. Modern philosophy about forecasts and prospects for the future of mankind.
The article analyzes the most interesting and deep concepts concerning the prospects and forecasts of the possible future of mankind and substantiates the conclusion about the need for the spiritual rebirth of man.
Zinnurova L. I. Modern philosophy of Prognoses and perspectives of Future Mankind.
The analusis of the most interesting and deep concepts conserning, perspectives and forecasts of a possible future of Mankind is being done in the article.
Abstract
L. I. Zinnurov. Modern philosophy about forecasts and prospects of future people.
The article analyzes the most important ideas and deep concepts that point to the prospects and forecasts of a possible future people, as well as vysnovok about the need for spiritual renewal of people.
Zinnurova L. I. – Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, Associate Professor
Most science fiction writers and futurologists see the future of mankind in rather gloomy colors, and with good reason. Our attitude towards the environment leaves much to be desired, we use technology too recklessly and become more and more perfect in self-destruction. However, there are also optimists who see the distant future as amazing and wonderful.
1. Status Quo
A realistic assessment of the current state of affairs was formulated by Bill Joy, co-founder of the American software and hardware company Sun Microsystems. In a 2004 article, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," he wrote about the catastrophic consequences that the development of 21st-century technologies such as robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology could lead to. Joy believes that the most reasonable thing that humanity can do today is to use what is already there. Only in this way can it prolong its existence on the planet.
2. Green planet
The very first idea in this series was introduced by Bruce Sterling's Green Design movement. This movement advocates the application of innovative technologies to solve environmental problems. Sterling predicts that the future of the planet will be much more ecologically diverse than at any other moment in history.
In such a future, a person himself will change a lot - in order to live in complete harmony with the outside world. It will receive all our energy from the sources of the Earth itself and the Sun. Having thoroughly studied the earth's ecosystems, humanity will change them too - for example, put an end to all predation and animal suffering. And he will control the weather as he sees fit.
And, in the end, we will learn how to prevent all sorts of natural disasters: the fall of asteroids, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions...
3. Living surrounded by "machines of grace and love"
If the future inventors of artificial intelligence set the right goals for themselves, Singularity believes, then the next generations will live among the so-called "friendly robots" programmed not to harm a person. Moreover, the machines will make sure that nothing bad happens to us and protect us from all possible dangers. Paradise, where a happy future is provided for us by artificial intelligence, is dedicated to a whole poem by Richard Brautigan called “The Machines of Grace and Love Watch Everything” and the British film of the same name.
4. Where no one has ever been before ...
It's high time to break away from our little ball and start colonizing other solar systems, some futurists believe. Not only our salvation depends on this (the idea that you cannot store all your eggs in one basket), it is inherent in our very nature - to develop, move on and conquer new horizons.
Even now, our still timid attempts at space exploration bring us many benefits - technologies using satellites and some breakthroughs in science.
5. Interior space
Another alternative idea - an ideal and cloudless existence can be achieved by overloading your consciousness into giant supercomputers. Computers of enormous computing power, like the mega-structure called "matryoshka brain" proposed by Robert Bradbury, will use the entire energy potential of the planet to power the computer system.
Or civilization will find a way to build the so-called "Dyson Sphere", which is a relatively thin spherical shell with a star in the center. Thus, two global problems will be solved at once - living space and energy, which can be obtained in abundance from the central star.
Predictions by "theory"
The famous American scientist, inventor and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has been making predictions in the scientific and technical field for more than 30 years. Most of his predictions, given, as a rule, for 10-40 years ahead, come true with a high degree of accuracy. Back in the early 1980s, he predicted the explosive development of the Internet, which should occur in the 90s. At the same time, the scientist predicted the victory of a computer over the world chess champion in 1998. And he made a mistake by only one year: the Deep Blue computer beat G. Kasparov in 1997.
Kurzweil makes his predictions in accordance with the theory he developed, which he calls the "Law of accelerating returns." It is based on the pace of accelerating world scientific and technological progress. In particular, Kurzweil traces progress in the evolution of computers. At first, doubling of computer power occurred every three years, in the middle of the 20th century this period was reduced to two years, and now it takes only one year to double the power of computers.
People will be treated by nanorobots
According to Kurzweil, in 40 years humanity will achieve unlimited material abundance, and people will become immortal. Here, the futurist took into account, first of all, the development of genetics, computer technology and nanotechnology. In his speech at the World Science Festival last summer, he predicted that by 2030 there will be means for reprogramming the entire human body, which, according to the scientist, is a natural computer. In this way, he says, we will be able to halt and then completely reverse aging.
Soon people will be able to live without fear for their internal organs, including the heart, Kurzweil believes. They will only have to periodically visit a doctor to monitor their health, because the cells of their own blood controlled by nanorobots will constantly maintain the body in a normal state.
With the help of nanotechnologies, it will be possible to grow new organs directly in the human body itself to replace the old ones, as well as to repair broken organs and tissues. Such repairs can be made by the same ubiquitous nanorobots embedded in the circulatory system. They, like travelers in the jungle, will independently move through the vessels, arteries and capillaries, correcting the characteristics of the cells indicated in the "route sheet", cleansing the body of microbes, cancer cells and cholesterol deposits.
And as the organs obtained from nature fail, these organs will change to artificial ones until the whole person becomes an android. The most difficult thing now seems to be the replacement of the sense organs. But from the leading laboratories of the world there are reports that the artificial eye and nose are within easy reach: "An artificial pancreas and nerve fibers have already been created ..."
Diagnostic toilets and sex "in the head"
One of Kurzweil's curious predictions is the appearance of diagnostic toilets in 2017. It is enough for a person to go to the toilet, having flushed information about his health into such a toilet along with the contents of the rectum and bladder, and then he does not even need to see a doctor. Going to the toilet the next morning, you can read the desired recipe issued by the computer on the roll of toilet paper.
Nanotechnology will also increase the mental abilities of people, the futurist believes. Each of us can write an entire book in a matter of hours.
Computers will take over the function of teaching children
"Obsolete" modern sex. After all, if you look at it, sexual pleasure is not given to us by animal manipulations with our reproductive organs, but by signals that affect certain parts of the brain. In the future, a person will be able to get sexual pleasure a hundred times more acute than during ordinary sex - again with the help of nanorobots that affect these very parts of the brain. This does not require a partner. As for children, they will be "conceived" in test tubes.
Nanorobots will also be created for animals, in particular for livestock. As a result, it will be possible to cut off a shank or fillet from live cows and pigs, which will then grow back like a lizard. Waste-free food will appear, and animals will be able to empty their stomach once a week.
“Perhaps my reasoning will seem implausible to someone,” the scientist concludes his speech at the forum, “but much of what I am talking about already exists.”
In 2015 there will be no electronic money?
Kurzweil's forecasts, despite all their fantasticness, are taken quite seriously by experts. Especially when you consider that no later than in 2007, the presentation of the world's first quantum computer, predicted by the same Kurzweil, took place. This computer in the very near future should make a revolution in technology, as it is based on a completely different principle than silicon computers. The distance between them is like between accounting accounts and a laptop. Silicon computers are built on the principle of "zero-one", or rather, "either zero - or one." Quantum ones are not “either-or”, but “and-and”, because at the same moment both states will be involved. This is due to the dualism of the photon, the carrier of information in a quantum computer. A photon is both a particle and a wave, operating with quantum bits that can take on both values at once.
Kurzweil claims that by 2015 a quantum computer will be able to process more data streams than particles in the universe, and most leading experts agree with him. The field of application of computers will expand enormously. Thus, a quantum computer that cannot be classified will devalue all modern cryptography, all code systems and cause a revolution in areas related to privacy and security. First of all, it will hit the banks. It is not clear how they will get out of the situation, because the entire system of electronic money circulation will collapse, including plastic cards will lose their meaning. The veils of secrecy with the CIA FSB, MI6, MOSSADA will be broken. The more powerful the computers, the higher the flow of information, and hence the more lightweight the secrecy.
"Under the hood" of artificial intelligence
In the forecasts of futurologists, it has already become commonplace to predict the computerization of people's lives, including the participation of computers in cooking, driving, conducting financial transactions, monitoring health, learning, entertainment, and others. Kurzweil goes further and makes a prediction that from 2045 all computerized processes on the planet, including everyday ones, will begin to come together, so that eventually the Earth will turn into one giant supercomputer controlled by a single super-powerful artificial intelligence.
Among his other predictions, the following can be distinguished: in the 2020s, alternative energy and activities aimed at improving human life and not threatening the environment will become widespread; by 2030 space tourism will develop; in 2028, a permanent colony on the moon will be established. Space will become an integral part of the world economy. In 2040-2050, the world will unite: its political map will resemble the European Union or the United States, thanks to which it will be possible to significantly extinguish inter-ethnic and inter-confessional conflicts.
Street dirt food
Speaking of futurologists, it is impossible not to mention Arthur Clarke, a 90-year-old English science fiction writer who lived in Sri Lanka. Like Kurzweil, he was one of the few forecasters who achieved at least 80% of what they predicted. So, back in the 1950s, Clark predicted the emergence of a system of satellites in geostationary orbit that would be able to solve a variety of tasks - from meteorological observations to espionage. In those same years, he predicted the progress of computers, the emergence of the Internet, the development of nuclear energy, the landing of a man on the moon, and the cloning of living beings. 
By 2030, space tourism will develop
And here are the writer's predictions regarding the 21st century: in 2014 the first space hotel will welcome guests; in 2020, artificial intelligence will reach the level of a person; in 2021, people will land on Mars; in 2023 - cloning of dinosaurs thanks to the reproduced DNA structure; in 2040 - the production of molecular duplicates of any objects and substances. In other words, from everything, even from street dirt, it will be possible to make (with the participation of computers, of course) food, clothes, houses, cars, diamonds. Industry and agriculture will lose their meaning. A person will go into science, art, entertainment. In 2050, mass freezing of people will begin. Most of mankind in cryogenic sleep will rush into the distant future. By 2090, according to A. Clark, aircraft capable of reaching near-light speed will be created. This will make real interstellar flights with frozen astronauts on board under the control of powerful artificial intelligence.
the development of means and methods of warfare. But war is a product of politics and ideology, so the reasons for the strengthening of the military complex and the threat of thermonuclear war should be seen not in science or technical achievements, but in the imperfection of the society itself, oriented towards violence.
Thus, the main aspects of this problem, as well as the environmental one (considered in the previous question), convince and allow us to conclude that the global problems of our time are not purely technical, but social in nature. They include a whole range of socio-economic, political, ideological, etc. reasons and aspects. Therefore, the solution of global problems should basically go through the unity of technical, scientific and social with the dominance of the latter and with a focus on humanistic values.
Literature
2. Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ãë. 12, p. 3.
test questions
1. What are the main features of a post-industrial society.
2. Why is modern society called even more informational?
3. Expand the concept of technocracy. What is its negative role for modern man?
4. What is the reason for the emergence of technical alarmism?
5. On what grounds does cultural criticism build its reasoning?
6. What problems of modern man are caused by the rapid development of science and technology?
8. What problems of our time are called "global"? What are the reasons for their occurrence?
9. Name the current major global problems.
Section 10. THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY: FORECASTS AND PROSPECTS
Topic 10.1. OPPORTUNITIES FOR FORESIGHTING THE FUTURE
Building prospects for the development of man and humanity, one should take into account the complexity of this phenomenon itself: spirituality, social essence and natural biological existence. The task is difficult, because the human world itself is complex and largely unpredictable, built on the active intervention of the ideal in the course of development. Nevertheless, social thought, by virtue of its creative ability, inevitably turns to forecasts of the future, relying on the past and the present. But if the early concepts, having no developed scientific methodology of cognition, relied on dreams and fantasies, then the modern vision of the future seeks to use the entire arsenal of scientific achievements, primarily in the field of humanitarian knowledge. However, using the data of science, one should not forget that philosophical knowledge is different from scientific knowledge, therefore its forecasts should be based on the involvement of a person as a living active force in the events taking place in the world. Therefore, philosophy, taking into account the subjective factor of development, departs from the principle of unambiguity and inevitability of the history of man and society. But, having a predictive function, it puts forward its own predictions about the future. (Although some philosophers deny the possibility of foresight.)
In substantiating the possibility of predicting the future, the following aspects are singled out: ontological, epistemological, logical, neurophysiological, and social.
ontological aspect lies in the fact that it is possible to foresee the very essence of being - its objective laws, cause-and-effect relationships. Based on dialectics, the mechanism of development remains unchanged until each qualitative leap, and therefore it is possible to trace the future.
Gnoseological aspect is based on the fact that knowledge of the world is possible, constantly expanding and deepening, therefore forecasting as a special knowledge is also possible.
Logical aspect emphasizes the constancy of the laws of logic, which help organize human thinking and, accordingly, cognition.
Neurophysiological aspect is based on the possibility of consciousness and the brain to advance reflection of reality.
Social aspect is that humanity seeks, based on its own experience of development, to model the future.
Literature
1. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. - Rostov-on-Don, 2003. - Ãë. 12, p. one.
Topic 10.2. NEW WAYS OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE HUMAN AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
The successes of modern science and technology in the study of the biological nature of man, the identification of his natural and biological originality (evolution, types of nervous activity, laws of biological regulation and life rhythm, genetic structure, etc.) have formulated a special direction in philosophical prognostication concerning individual biological human development perspectives. The issues under consideration relate to the extension of a person's individual life, the possibility of natural-evolutionary or artificial changes in his biological nature, etc.
One of the ways of this forecasting is to use the discoveries of genetics, which studies the interaction of heredity and environment. The practical use of artificial genes, which is already being used in medicine, makes it possible to expand the adaptive capabilities of a person, especially one who is endowed with hereditary diseases. Human Genetics - Penetration
â hidden secrets of his biological existence, as a result of which it is possible to achieve a greater release of man from nature, since in this case he becomes literally the creator of himself. Developed on the basis of genetics, "genetic engineering" and "eugenics" (from the Greek eugenes - a good kind) are precisely the task of improving the human race. Intensive study of the existing genetic variability, gaining deeper knowledge over time regarding the gene pool and the genetic volume of populations, will make it possible to create plans for controlling the biological structure of a person, adapting him to a certain environment.
Undoubtedly, the research of genetics is fruitful, but we should not forget that philosophy comes from the versatility of man. Its humanistic meaning lies primarily in the representation of man as part of not only the natural world, but also the social and spiritual. Man's future will be greatly empowered by harnessing the variability of the gene pool, but will he take responsibility for his conscious ability to control his own genetic destiny? If a person begins to control his own evolution, he must clearly understand those certain values, towards the realization of which his efforts will be applied. Is the person capable of it? And in whose hands will this regulation be? From the point of view of philosophy, the question is also how much a person socially and spiritually retains identity with himself? To what extent will the principle of humanism correspond to its content if the person himself becomes a “guinea pig”?
Another direction of the concepts of the future focuses on social and spiritual forces of man. Based on the values of technogenic civilization, the authors see "humanized" technology as the prospects for society. In their opinion, technology and new technologies should take into account man and the nature around him. The socio-political progress of the future will be determined by the extent to which it will be possible to rework the achievements of scientific and technological progress in social terms. The way forward is not a return to old ideas, but the development of newly thought-out technologies. New technologies, in their opinion, need an "engineer of the future" who
â In the course of his professional training, the least of all should be “pumped up” with technical knowledge. Progress, of course, will not least depend on the fact that the creative creative activity of an engineer is determined by thinking within the framework of entire systems, taking into account extra-technical conditions and connections, which in itself means the subordination of technology to human goals. This process can be understood as a change of priorities: it is not technology that dominates a person, but a person uses it for the comprehensive development of his essential forces.
An important place in prognostic concepts is occupied by ideas of evolutionism and education of a new ecological consciousness of human involvement in cosmic evolution. At one time, V.I. Vernadsky, Teilhard de Chardin and their modern followers built their reasoning on the basis of the unity of man and nature through man (from man to nature), relying on his increased intellectual potential. The essence of their views is that as a result of the evolutionary process, a new geological force arises - the scientific thought of social humanity. Under the influence of scientific thought and human labor, the biosphere passes into a new state - the noosphere. As a result, the connection "universe - nature - man" receives a new quality, where a person with his mind becomes the center of this connection. Therefore, at a certain stage in the development of civilization, humanity will have to take responsibility for its further evolution in order to survive. The evolution of the biosphere acquires a directed character. Today we use the term
“co-evolution” of man and the biosphere. As an originality and at the same time a factor in the development of modern society, they put forward the process of informatization, which contributes to the evolutionary processes of unity of people with nature, space and each other.
Literature
1. Philosophy / Ed. A.F. Zotova and others - M., 2003. - Sec. 5, ch. 7, item 5.
2. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. - Rostov-on-Don, 2003. - Ch. 12, p. 2.
test questions
1. What is the specificity of philosophical foresight in contrast to scientific?
2. What are the main philosophical aspects of the possibility of predicting the future should be noted?
3. Why can't focusing only on the biological change of man fully reveal the prospects for his development?
4. What is the meaning of the idea of "humanized technology"?
5. What are the ideas of evolutionism based on?
Calendar-forecast of human development until 2600 and beyond
Original material about what the technological revolutions have in store for us in the futureThe following theoretical calculations and forecast for the current third millennium are based on materials from the site (http://members.aol.com), (J.R. Mooneyham). The original document, accidentally discovered by the author of this material and previously unknown to the Ukrainian reader, consists of two separate but closely related works: "Chronology" and "Perspectives". Due to the complexity and ambiguity of the calculations that were originally included in the text, the author was forced to resort to its thorough editing and reduction. I had to use my own proven method of working with such information - to connect existing knowledge and intuition in the field of making futurological forecasts. Moreover, the creators of the site encourage creative handling of the material presented and invite everyone to test their visionary gift. What came out of this the author - to judge the reader.
Do "calendars of the future" have the right to life?
Chronology - the general hierarchical structure (outline) of future events. It has a somewhat "frozen" appearance and may be ambiguously perceived by the reader due to the peculiarities of his "dynamic" perception of time. Chronology works simultaneously both in terms of science and in terms of arbitrary intuitive revelations. And this is precisely the value of making forecasts of future events in human history in calendar order. This method of predictions and foresight will be developed in the future and will be called "Future Calendars". The famous science fiction writer Arthur Clarke was the first to use it in his forecasts. The value of compiling the chronicles of the future also lies in the fact that the forecast is clothed in a specific "skeleton" of the nodal points of the future time, which allows you to see the general logic and trends in the development of human civilization. It differs from the development of scientific prospects for the future by being more concrete and, so to speak, mathematical. At the same time, the chronology of the future is its mobile model and therefore requires constant refinement and addition of the original calendar scheme. Therefore, the described method of forecasting and prediction can be considered the most democratic and accessible for creative use by any person interested in the future.
Calendar of major events in human history up to the year 2600.
General characteristics of the entire period: human civilization and the Earth are radically transformed. The virtual computer world network breaks into the public consciousness. Personal computers will gradually become cheap and affordable commodities. Cloning of adult mammals from scientific laboratories will be transferred to agricultural farms. The virtual-computer world will inflict a mortal blow on religions in the specified period of time and will become a tool for creating a new universal worldview. Revolution in transport. Exploration and settlement of Antarctica. Colonization of Mars and Venus. The withering away of the state and the creation of the World Government. Creation of cyborgs. Selection of breeds of intelligent animals. Achievement of immortality. Mastering teleportation. The transformation of earthly civilization into cosmic "radiant humanity". Traveling across the Universe, exploration of parallel worlds and other dimensions of space-time.
2007-2017. The global computer network creates a new social reality and radically changes the human mental world. The foundations of the future information-virtual civilization are being laid. The rapid development of fundamental scientific research paves the way for future breakthroughs in energy, nano- and biotechnologies, and medicine. Mortality among newborns is gradually reduced to zero. The emergence of new mental illnesses caused by the development of computer-virtual reality. Information viruses are transferred from the world of computer reality to all areas of public life. Improving state control in the field of information security of the population. The Pentagon is hatching plans to unleash virtual information wars. Creation of unmanned aircraft. The danger of unleashing the Third World War reaches its maximum.
2018-2049. Environmental pollution peaks. Regional religious conflicts are spreading across the globe. The air smells of an armed conflict of world religions. Mass zombification of the population by computer reality. Rising incidence of mental illness among young people. Robotics products are becoming a major consumer product in every country except Africa. The development of unmanned military aviation is becoming the main direction of strengthening the defense capability of states. The economic and ideological collapse of a society of mass consumption, caused by pollution of the human environment, the spread of suicides among the population, terrorism, the global food crisis.
2050-2081. The birth of new religions and the displacement of traditional cults by them. The flowering of esoteric teachings of all kinds. Numerous teachers and gurus become idols of people, politicians and successful businessmen are of no interest to anyone. Mass individualism. The rise of corporate values. Patriotism is fading away. Civil society is falling apart. Gambling boom. Creation of new geopolitical unions of states. Charity and patronage are considered leftovers. Nuclear terrorism is becoming the norm in international relations. Armed conflicts between the leading states of the world, initiated by the North American Interstate Union. Religious extremists blackmail large sections of the population. Ecological and technogenic catastrophes. The beginning of large-scale economic development and settlement of Antarctica. The end of US hegemony, the entry into the geopolitical arena of new alliances of states. Revolution in transport: the creation of universal (for movement in the land, air and water environment) personal vehicles. Real estate in developed countries is becoming mobile (industrial and residential complexes on ekranoplanes (aircraft-ship) and airships). Development and implementation of an effective method for the production of electrical energy from solar and its wireless (using a laser) transmission over long distances. The first solar power stations in earth orbit.
2082-2183. Human society is divided into the economic and intellectual elite and consumers of virtual products, who are ready for anything for gambling and imitation of any feelings in a fantastic reality. Wide sections of the population live according to the principle of "Bread and circuses!". The state, as the main social institution, begins to die. People cooperate in communities according to their interests (technological, spiritual, elite, according to virtual preferences). Mastery of all people by telepathy based on the use of field computers. The beginning of the colonization of Mars and the transformation of its natural conditions. Contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. A large-scale cosmic catastrophe near the solar system contributes at the end of the period under review to the beginning of a slow revival of spiritual values and the rejection of the division of society into "chosen ones" and "outcasts".
2184-2272. Creation of humanoid cyborgs by nanotechnology methods. Colonization of Venus. The era of superluminal transport and teleportation of any objects (including humans) within the solar system. At the same time, achievements in the field of nanotechnology, space design and wireless transmission of energy and information are used. "Space Elevator" - an orbital transporter reaching an altitude of 36,000 km (according to the idea of A. Clark and the project of Yu. Artsutanov). Continuation of catastrophic processes in the interstellar medium closest to the solar system. era of prosperity. The disappearance of states and social inequality. World government. Exploration of the satellites of the giant planets and the asteroid belt. The possibility of using comets and asteroids by space separatist colonies from Mars and other planets to blackmail the Earth Government. Teleportation and information-virtual space expeditions to nearby star systems. Breeding by methods of bio- and nano-technologies of breeds of animals that are not inferior to humans in intelligence. Creation of "Martian" and "Venusian" races of terrestrial mankind. Creation of a mobile immortal human organism that exists simultaneously in several copies: real (non-protein, matter-energetic) and "sleeping" (packages of energy and information teleported over any distance)
2273-2350. Using the methods of nanotechnologies and controlled teleportation, an energy man is created - an immortal and self-healing spherical energy being (“radiant race”) freely moving within the Galaxy and self-restoring in any environment. People are free to choose: to live on Earth or in space colonies in an immortal body built of matter, or in the form of a bunch of energy to move freely through the Cosmos.
2351-2600. Free teleportation of humanity in unimaginable energy suits to parallel worlds, other universes and dimensions. The meaning of the existence of diverse and numerous associations of transformed people is the endless development and knowledge of all types of spaces created by the Creator. And the creation of their own spaces by the creative transformation of everything mastered and known ...
Do you believe all of the above?
Of course: today the idea that technology in just 600 years can radically transform humanity and its place in the universe sounds both seditious and fantastic. Although in his own futurological research, the author assigned 840 years to the process of the transition of civilization to the spatial-energy stage of development. For cosmic time scales, a difference of 240 years is, of course, nothing. But there are other points of view. If we follow the concept of cycles proposed by H. P. Blavatsky in The Secret Doctrine, then we will pass into the state of the Sixth Great Race (“radiant humanity”) in 560 thousand years. Russian mathematician N.D. Morozov believes that our civilization will master the processes of space-time formations not earlier than 15120.
How can one explain such a scatter of opinions of researchers of the future in assessing the pace of human development? The first explanation is what model of civilization development is taken as a basis: extremely accelerated, accelerated and slow. Models that take up to a thousand years to solve the problems under consideration are models of extremely accelerated development. Their authors believe that the pace of human development will increase exponentially. The periods of change of technological modes, which average about 100 years, reinforce such arguments. On the other hand, all variants of rapid progress do not take into account the inhibitory effect of probable global cataclysms. Thus, the Ukrainian researcher, Professor A.S. Lazarev, in his book “The Deciphered Bible or the Requiem of Civilization”, believes that in the period from 2066 to 2099, humanity will experience a new Flood caused by the split of the continents: the separation of Africa from Eurasia. And in 2166, most of humanity (up to 4 billion) can be destroyed as a result of the passage of the planet Nibiru near the Earth. He is echoed by the Russian researcher A.D. Pleshanov, who believes that, starting from the 21st century, global cataclysms will shake our long-suffering planet every 93 years on average. But the well-known commentator of Nostradamus J. Hoag believes that in the 30s of our century the Third World War, chemical and bacteriological war, will break out, which will last 27 years and destroy a third of humanity. Taking the above into account, all models of the extremely accelerated development of mankind can be considered optimistic models.
If the pessimists are right, then we will develop “normally”, according to N.D. Morozov or according to H. P. Blavatsky, without imminent fulfillment of fantasies, but with huge human casualties and global catastrophes. Therefore, the author of this material wants to consider himself a science fiction writer and an optimist. The true history of mankind will be decided by God or the Universal Mind. Nobody disputes this argument today. They argue, by and large, about something else: WHO IS THIS MIND, THE GREAT PESIMIST, or THE GREAT OPTIMIST. Something deeply hidden in the depths of human souls throughout the earth's history tells them that HE is most likely a GREAT OPTIMIST.
Vladimir Streletsky, futurist writer. Kiev City