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Third outbreak. The third powerful X3.0 class flare occurred on the Sun in the last two days


The third powerful X-class flare in the last two days occurred in
Sun, a representative of the Institute told RIA Novosti on Tuesday
applied geophysics.

"Another class X-3, already third in a row, flash registered
around 5 am Moscow time. ejected coronal mass
own edge will reach near-Earth space on May 17-18 and maybe
cause magnetic disturbances," he said.

Solar flares as a function of X-ray power
divided into five classes: A, B, C, M and X. Minimum class A0.0
corresponds to a radiation power in Earth orbit of 10 nanowatts per
square meter. When moving to the next letter, the power increases in
ten times. Flares are often accompanied by ejections of solar plasma.
If a plasma cloud reaches the Earth, a magnetic storm begins.

The latest flares have become the most powerful burst of solar activity since
October 23, 2012, when an X-ray flare occurred on the Sun
class X1.8.

Solar flare May 13, 2013. The image was taken by the AIA instrument on the SDO satellite in line 131 A during the flare maximum at 06:17 Moscow time.

X1.7

The largest solar flare this year was registered today at about 6 am Moscow time. The event was observed at the northeastern edge of the Sun (upper left sector of the Sun when viewed from the northern hemisphere of the Earth). The flare was initially detected by the rapid growth of the X-ray flux from the Sun. In total, from 06:05 to 06:17 Moscow time, that is, in just over 10 minutes, the level of X-ray radiation in Earth's orbit increased by more than 100 times. The maximum radiation was recorded at 06:17, after which a long phase of the flare decline began, which is still ongoing (10:00 Moscow time). At the flare decay phase, the corona of the Sun recovers, as it were, after the explosion, gradually returning to the disturbed state of equilibrium. Previously, the last signs of the outbreak should disappear from the Sun at about 13-14 hours Moscow time. To the Earth, on the contrary, the first consequences of the outbreak should begin to reach, starting from the second half of the day, and, probably, will be extended for a day or more.

The preliminary X-ray class of the flare is estimated to be X1.75. The letter X denotes the highest x-ray score on a five-point flare scale (the remaining scores are denoted by letters A, B, C, and M). The figure corresponds to the level of the X-ray flux in the Earth's orbit. In this case, this means that the flow reached 1.75 ten-thousandths of a watt per square meter. This is about 1000 times higher than normal levels.

This is the first top-notch flare of this year, which is widely considered to be a year of decline in solar activity after one of the weakest peaks in history, recorded in 2012. Last year, for comparison, 7 flares of the highest score were registered, while by this stage of the year (by May) there were already 4 of them. In total, since the beginning of the current, 24th, solar cycle, 15 events of the highest score have occurred on the Sun, the most the strongest of which are the X6.9 level flare on August 9, 2011 and the X5.4 level flare on March 7, 2012. Today's flare ranks 9th among the largest events of this solar cycle, that is, in fact, over the past 7 years. Comparing the activity levels of the current and last year, it can also be noted that in 2012 there were 129 outbreaks of the second most powerful M score. This year, over the past 4.5 months, only 21 of them have been registered.

At present, it is very difficult to say in which active region the flare occurred. With a high probability, the group of spots with which it is associated is still located beyond the edge of the solar disk and is not yet visible from the Earth. Due to the rotation of the Sun, it should appear in the field of view of terrestrial telescopes in 2-3 days. Since the strength of a flare is usually directly related to the area of ​​sunspots, there is reason to believe that one of the largest active regions of recent years is included in the Earth's visibility area. Like it or not, it will become clear very soon.

Since the flare occurred at the edge of the Sun, then, most likely, the Earth will be able to avoid the most powerful impact that a solar flare can have on our planet - the arrival and impact on the magnetosphere of plasma clouds ejected from the Sun's atmosphere during powerful explosions. Thus, the forecast for the probability of magnetic storms in the near future is extremely small - less than 10%. At the same time, if the energy reserves in the corresponding active region are not exhausted by the explosion, then as the active region approaches the center of the solar disk, its impact on the Earth will rapidly increase. The maximum geoeffectiveness will be reached in 8-10 days, when the active region is located exactly on the Sun-Earth line.

Solar flares on May 13, 2013. The graph is based on data from the X-ray monitor on the GOES satellite (NASA).

X2.8


On the Sun, with a break of about 14 hours, a second even more powerful explosion unexpectedly occurred. A new flare was registered on the same eastern edge of the Sun and in the same active region, where today at about 6 am Moscow time the first event of the highest X-score took place this year. The second explosion on the Sun almost doubled the first: its level was X2. 8 versus X1.7 observed in the morning. Thus, at the moment, this is the new largest flare of the current year and at the same time the third most powerful event in the last 6.5 years - since December 2006, when the previous 23rd cycle of solar activity actually ended.

Two top-notch flares in the same active region, separated by such a short time interval, is an extremely rare event. The last time this was observed was about 8 years ago, on the night of September 13-14, 2005, and was associated with the appearance on the solar disk of one of the largest sunspot groups in the entire history of observation - group No. 808, which passed across the solar disk from September 8 to 20 and consisting of several dozen spots with a total area of ​​up to 1430 standard units. This group could then observe the Sun with the naked eye (a unique case), and in total during its existence it produced 10 flares of the highest X score, including one of the most powerful flares of the X17 level on September 7, 2005 in the history of space observations. What is the current active region, which produced both of today's events, is still a mystery, as it is still hidden behind the edge of the Sun and is only approaching its visible hemisphere. In the catalogs, its number is still indicated by the number 0.

Since the outbreak occurred at the edge of the Sun, it, like the previous one, has minimal geoeffectiveness, that is, the ability to influence the Earth. However, the very fact of the beginning of such a powerful activity on the Sun, which had recently fallen into hibernation, raises many questions, including whether this does not indicate the beginning of solar activity reaching a second maximum. Such situations have occurred several times in the history of observations. In particular, the "two-humped" was the maximum of the previous 23rd solar cycle. If this happens, it could refute the current prediction that our star will experience a "deep solar winter" in the coming years, comparable to those previously seen only during major disruptions of the solar cycle. At the same time, it is also possible that these flares are only one of the last bursts of solar activity in the "dying" 24th solar cycle. The answer to this question will be able to give observations in the very next few days.

In the first half of Wednesday, September 6, 2017, scientists registered the most powerful solar flare in the last 12 years. The flare was assigned a score of X9.3 - the letter means belonging to the class of extremely large flares, and the number indicates the strength of the flare. The ejection of billions of tons of matter occurred almost in the region of AR 2673, almost in the center of the solar disk, so earthlings did not escape the consequences of what happened. The second powerful outbreak (point X1.3) was recorded on the evening of Thursday, September 7, the third - today, Friday, September 8.

The sun releases huge energy into space

Solar flares, depending on the power of X-ray radiation, are divided into five classes: A, B, C, M and X. The minimum class A0.0 corresponds to a radiation power in the Earth's orbit of ten nanowatts per square meter, the next letter means a tenfold increase in power. In the course of the most powerful flares that the Sun is capable of, huge energy is released into the surrounding space, in a few minutes - about a hundred billion megatons of TNT. This is about a fifth of the energy radiated by the Sun in one second, and all the energy that humanity will produce in a million years (assuming it is produced at modern rates).

Severe geomagnetic storm expected

X-ray radiation reaches the planet in eight minutes, heavy particles - in a few hours, plasma clouds - in two to three days. The coronal ejection from the first flare has already reached the Earth, the planet collided with a cloud of solar plasma with a diameter of about one hundred million kilometers, although it was previously predicted that this would happen by Friday evening, September 8th. A geomagnetic storm of G3-G4 level (a five-point scale varies from weak G1 to extremely strong G5), provoked by the first outbreak, should end on Friday evening. Coronal ejections from the second and third solar flares have not yet reached the Earth, possible consequences should be expected at the end of this week or the beginning of next week.

The consequences of the outbreak have long been understood

Geophysicists predict the aurora in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, cities located at relatively low latitudes for the Aurora. In the US state of Arkansas, it has already been noticed. As early as Thursday, carriers in the US and Europe reported non-critical outages. The level of X-ray radiation in near-Earth orbit has slightly increased, the military specifies that there is no direct threat to satellites and ground systems, as well as to the crew of the ISS.

Image: NASA/GSFC

However, there is a danger to low-orbit and geostationary satellites. The former are at risk of failing due to deceleration from the heated atmosphere, while the latter, having moved 36,000 kilometers from the Earth, may collide with a cloud of solar plasma. Interruptions with radio communications are possible, but for a final assessment of the consequences of the outbreak, it is necessary to wait at least the end of the week. The deterioration of people's well-being due to changes in the geomagnetic situation has not been scientifically proven.

May increase solar activity

The last time such an outbreak was observed on September 7, 2005, but the strongest (with a score of X28) occurred even earlier (November 4, 2003). In particular, on October 28, 2003, one of the high-voltage transformers in the Swedish city of Malmö failed, de-energizing the entire settlement for an hour. Other countries also suffered from the storm. A few days before the events of September 2005, a less powerful flare was recorded, and scientists believed that the Sun would calm down. What is happening in the last days strongly resembles that situation. This behavior of the luminary means that the 2005 record may still be broken in the near future.

Image: NASA/GSFC

However, over the past three centuries, humanity has experienced even more powerful solar flares than those that occurred in 2003 and 2005. In early September 1859, a geomagnetic storm brought down the telegraph systems of Europe and North America. The reason was called a powerful coronal mass ejection, which reached the planet in 18 hours and was observed on September 1 by British astronomer Richard Carrington. There are also studies that question the consequences of the solar flare of 1859, scientists that the magnetic storm affected only local areas of the planet.

Solar flares are difficult to quantify

A consistent theory describing the formation of solar flares does not yet exist. Flares occur, as a rule, at the points of interaction of sunspots on the border of regions of the northern and southern magnetic polarities. This leads to a rapid release of the energy of the magnetic and electric fields, which is then used to heat the plasma (increase in the velocity of its ions).

Observed spots are areas of the Sun's surface with a temperature of about two thousand degrees Celsius below the temperature of the surrounding photosphere (about 5.5 thousand degrees Celsius). In the darkest parts of the spot, the magnetic field lines are perpendicular to the surface of the Sun, in the lighter parts they are closer to the tangent. The intensity of the magnetic field of such objects exceeds its earthly value by thousands of times, and the flares themselves are associated with a sharp change in the local geometry of the magnetic field.

The solar flare occurred against the background of a minimum of solar activity. Probably, in this way the luminary releases energy and will soon calm down. Events of this kind have occurred earlier in the history of the star and the planet. The fact that this attracts public attention today does not speak of a sudden threat to humanity, but of scientific progress - in spite of everything, scientists are gradually better understanding the processes taking place with the star, and reporting this to taxpayers.

Where to monitor the situation

Information about solar activity can be gleaned from many sources. In Russia, for example, from the websites of two institutes: and (the first at the time of writing posted a direct warning about the danger to satellites due to a solar flare, the second contains a convenient graph of flare activity), which use data from American and European services. Interactive data on solar activity, as well as an assessment of the current and future geomagnetic situation, can be found on the website

At 11 o'clock on September 8, another strong flare occurred on the Sun, which was assigned X - the highest - activity class, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the Physical Institute of the Academy of Sciences (FIAN). According to scientists, the plasma reached the Earth ahead of schedule and is currently "burning" the planet's magnetic field.

On September 8, a strong magnetic storm is observed on Earth, caused by the activity of the Sun on September 6-8. The Laboratory of Solar X-Ray Astronomy of the Physical Institute of the Academy of Sciences (FIAN) reports that the plasma ejection reached the planet ahead of the predicted date:

“The mass ejection from the X9.3 flare has reached Earth. A cloud of plasma from the Sun came to the orbit of our planet about 12 hours ahead of schedule. This means that its speed exceeded the expected 1.5 times, and the impact on the Earth was made with more power than planned.


Data from the Laboratory of Solar X-Ray Astronomy, FIAN

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the storm is planetary in nature, will last until 18:00 Moscow time on Friday and will affect almost the entire territory of Russia, with the exception of the southern regions, the borders with Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China.

Among the possible effects, in addition to the northern lights, scientists of the department call failures in the voltage of power systems, erroneous signals on some safety devices, problems with navigation. Spacecraft in low Earth orbit can develop a surface charge and therefore experience orientation problems. In addition, the degree of resistance to their movement of the atmosphere may increase.


Shliselburg. Fortress Oreshek. Photo: Igor Litvyak

Russian scientists warn that in practice, the deterioration of health under the influence of magnetic storms has not been proven, and any catastrophic impact on radio communication systems is also not expected. However, at present, the consequences of this natural phenomenon cannot be predicted with accuracy.