Mankind has been exploring outer space with manned spacecraft for more than half a century. Alas, during this time, figuratively speaking, it did not sail far. If we compare the universe to the ocean, we are just walking along the edge of the surf, ankle-deep in water. Once, however, we decided to swim a little deeper (the Apollo lunar program), and since then we have been living in memories of this event as the highest achievement.
So far, spacecraft have mostly served as delivery vehicles to and from Earth. The maximum duration of an autonomous flight, achievable by the reusable Space Shuttle, is only 30 days, and even then theoretically. But, perhaps, the spaceships of the future will become much more perfect and versatile?
Already the Apollo lunar expeditions have clearly shown that the requirements for future spacecraft can be strikingly different from the tasks for "space taxis". The Apollo lunar cabin had very little in common with streamlined ships and was not designed to fly in a planetary atmosphere. Some idea of how the spaceships of the future will look like, photos of American astronauts give more than clearly.
The biggest factor holding back episodic human research solar system, not to mention the organization of scientific bases on the planets and their satellites - radiation. Problems arise even with lunar missions lasting a week at most. And the one and a half year flight to Mars, which seemed to be about to take place, is being pushed further and further. Automated research has shown that it is deadly for humans along the entire route of an interplanetary flight. So the spacecraft of the future will inevitably acquire serious anti-radiation protection in combination with special biomedical measures for the crew.
It is clear that the sooner he gets to his destination, the better. But for a fast flight you need powerful engines. And for them, in turn, a highly efficient fuel that would not take up much space. Therefore, chemical propulsion engines will give way to nuclear ones in the near future. If, however, scientists succeed in taming antimatter, i.e., converting mass into light radiation, the spaceships of the future will acquire. In this case, we will talk about achieving relativistic speeds and interstellar expeditions.
Another serious obstacle to the development of the Universe by man will be the long-term maintenance of his life. In just a day, the human body consumes a lot of oxygen, water and food, emits solid and liquid waste, exhales carbon dioxide. It is pointless to take a full supply of oxygen and food with you on board because of their huge weight. The problem is solved by an onboard closed one. However, so far all experiments on this topic have not been successful. And without a closed LSS, spaceships of the future flying through space for years are unthinkable; pictures of artists, of course, amaze the imagination, but do not reflect the real state of affairs.
So, all projects of spaceships and starships are still far from real implementation. And humanity will have to come to terms with the study of the Universe by astronauts under cover and receiving information from automatic probes. But this, of course, is temporary. Astronautics does not stand still, and indirect signs show that a big breakthrough is brewing in this area of human activity. So, perhaps, the spaceships of the future will be built and make their first flights in the 21st century.
Opening screensaver of the series "Space": a schematic representation of the spread of mankind in the solar system
I prepared a short article for the Popular Mechanics magazine - a forecast for the development of astronautics. The material "5 Scenarios for the Future" (No. 4, 2016) included only a small part of the article - just one paragraph :) I am publishing the full version!
Part One: Near Future - 2020-2030
At the start of the new decade, humans will return to lunar space as part of NASA's Flexible Path program. The new American super-heavy Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, the first launch of which is scheduled for 2018, will help with this. The payload is 70 tons at the first stage, up to 130 tons at the next ones. Let me remind you that the Russian Proton has a payload of only 22 tons, the new Angara-A5 has about 24 tons. A state-owned spaceship Orion.
SLS
Source: NASA
American private traders will ensure the delivery of astronauts and cargo to the ISS. Initially, two ships - Dragon V2 and CST-100, then others will catch up (possibly winged - for example, Dream Chaser, not only in cargo, but also in passenger version).
The ISS will be operated at least until 2024 (possibly longer, especially the Russian segment).
Then NASA will announce a competition for a new near-Earth base, in which Bigelow Aerospace will probably win with a project for a station with inflatable modules.
By the end of the 2020s, it is possible to predict the presence in orbit of several private manned orbital stations for various purposes (from tourism to the orbital assembly of satellites).
With the use of a heavy rocket (with a carrying capacity of a little more than 50 tons, sometimes classified as super-heavy) Falcon Heavy and Dragon V2, made by Elon Musk, tourist flights to orbit around the Moon are quite likely - not just a flyby, but namely work in a lunar orbit - closer to the mid 2020s.
Also, closer to the mid-late 2020s, a competition from NASA is likely to create a lunar transport infrastructure (private expeditions and a private lunar base). According to recent estimates, private traders will need about $ 10 billion in government funding to return to the moon in the foreseeable (less than 10 years) time.
Model of the lunar base of the private company Bigelow Aerospace
Source: Bigelow Aerospace
Thus, the "Flexible Path" leads NASA to Mars (an expedition to Phobos - in the early 30s, to the surface of Mars - only in the 40s, if there is no powerful accelerating impulse from society), and low Earth orbit and even the Moon will be given private business.
In addition, new telescopes will be put into operation, which will make it possible not only to find tens of thousands of exoplanets, but also to measure the spectra of the atmospheres of the nearest of them by direct observation. I would venture to suggest that before the year 30, evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial life will be obtained (oxygen atmosphere, IR signatures of vegetation, etc.), and the question of the Great Filter and the Fermi paradox will again arise.
There will be new flights of probes to asteroids, gas giants (to Jupiter's moon Europa, to Saturn's moons Titan and Enceladus, as well as to Uranus or Neptune), the first private interplanetary probes will appear (Moon, Venus, possibly Mars with asteroids).
Talk about resource extraction on astroids until the 30th year will remain talk. Unless private traders will conduct small technological experiments together with state agencies.
Tourist suborbital systems will begin to fly massively - hundreds of people will visit the edge of space.
China will build its multi-module orbital station in the early 1920s, and by the middle to the end of the decade, it will carry out a manned flight around the moon. It will also launch many interplanetary probes (for example, the Chinese rover), but will not come out on top in astronautics. Although it will be on the third or fourth - right behind the United States and large private traders.
Russia, at best, will retain "pragmatic space" - communications, navigation, remote sensing of the Earth, as well as the Soviet legacy in manned space exploration. Cosmonauts on Soyuz will fly to the Russian segment of the ISS, and after the US withdraws from the project, the Russian segment will probably form a separate station - much smaller than the Soviet Mir and even smaller than the Chinese station. But this is enough to save the industry. Even in terms of launch vehicles, Russia will fall back to 3-4 place. But this will be enough to carry out tasks of national economic importance. In a bad scenario, after the completion of the operation of the ISS, the manned direction in astronautics in Russia will be completely closed, and in the most optimistic scenario, a lunar program will be announced with real (and not in the mid-2030s) deadlines and clear control, which will allow as early as mid-2020- x to land on the moon. But such a scenario, alas, is unlikely.
New countries will join the club of space powers, including several countries with manned programs - India, Iran, even North Korea. And this is not to mention private firms: by the end of the decade there will be many manned orbital private vehicles - but hardly more than a dozen.
Many small firms will create their own ultralight and light rockets. Moreover, some of them will gradually increase the payload - and go into the middle and even heavy classes.
Fundamentally new launch vehicles will not appear, people will fly on rockets, but the reusability of the first stages or the rescue of engines will become the norm. Probably, experiments will be carried out with aerospace reusable systems, new fuels, structures. It is possible that by the end of the 20s a single-stage reusable carrier will be built and will begin to fly.
Part Two: Mankind's Transformation into a Space Civilization - From 2030 to the End of the 21st Century
There are many bases on the Moon, both public and private. The natural satellite of the Earth is used as a resource base (energy, ice, various components of regolith), an experimental and scientific testing ground where space technologies for long-distance flights are tested, infrared telescopes are placed in shaded craters, and radio telescopes are located on the reverse side.
The moon is included in the earth's economy - the energy of lunar power plants (fields of solar panels and solar concentrators built from local resources) is transmitted both to space tugs in near-Earth space and to Earth. The problem of delivery of matter from the surface of the Moon to low Earth orbit (braking in the atmosphere and capture) has been solved. Lunar hydrogen and oxygen are used in lunar and near-Earth gas stations. Of course, all these are only the first experiments, but private firms are already making fortunes on them. Helium-3 has so far been mined only in small quantities for experiments related to fusion rocket engines.
On Mars - a scientific station-colony. A joint project of "private traders" (mainly Elon Musk) and states (mainly the United States). People have the opportunity to return to Earth, but many fly away to the new world forever. The first experiments on the possible terraforming of the planet. On Phobos - a transshipment base for heavy interplanetary spacecraft.
martian base
Source: Bryan Versteeg
Throughout the solar system, there are many probes, the purpose of which is to prepare for development, to search for resources. Flights of high-speed devices with nuclear power propulsion systems into the Kuiper belt to the recently discovered gas giant - the ninth planet. Rovers on Mercury, balloon, floating, flying probes on Venus, the study of satellites of giant planets (for example, submarines in the seas of Titan).
Distributed networks of space telescopes make it possible to capture exoplanets by direct observation and even map (very low resolution) planets around nearby stars. Large automatic observatories have been sent into the focus of the Sun's gravitational lens.
Single-stage reusable launch vehicles have been deployed and are operating, non-rocket methods of delivering cargo are actively used on the Moon - mechanical and electromagnetic catapults.
There are many tourist space stations flying. There are several stations - scientific institutes with artificial gravity (torus station).
Heavy manned interplanetary spacecraft have not only reached Mars and ensured the deployment of a colony base on the Red Planet, but are also actively exploring the asteroid belt. Many expeditions have been sent to near-Earth asteroids, an expedition to the orbit of Venus has been carried out. Preparations have begun for the deployment of research bases around the giant planets Jupiter and Saturn. Perhaps the giant planets will be the target of the first test flight of an interplanetary vehicle with a thermonuclear engine with magnetic plasma confinement.
Launching a weather balloon on Titan
After Gagarin's flight, people seriously thought that in just a few decades Mankind would conquer outer space, colonize the Moon, Mars and, possibly, more distant planets. However, these forecasts were overly optimistic. But now several states and private companies are seriously working to revive the space race that has lost its heat. In our today's review, we will tell you about some of the most ambitious similar projects of our time.
American multimillionaire Dennis Tito, who at one time became the first space tourist, created the Inspiration Mars program, the goal of which is to launch a private mission to Mars in 2018. Why in 2018? The fact is that when the ship starts on January 5 this year, there is a unique opportunity to fly along the minimum trajectory. The next time such a chance will fall only after thirteen years.
The American advanced development agency DARPA plans to launch a large-scale space program that has been developed for a hundred years or more. Its main goal is the desire to explore the space outside the Solar System for its potential colonization by Mankind. At the same time, DARPA itself plans to spend only $ 100 million on this, while the main financial burden will fall on the shoulders of private investors. This mode of cooperation within the agency has been compared to exploratory expeditions of the 16th century, during which their leaders, operating under the flags different countries, as a result, received most of the income from the territories annexed to the Crown and the status of the royal governor in them.
Renowned director James Cameron founded a foundation that will deal with the problem of using asteroids for useful purposes for Mankind. After all, these space objects are full of rare earth elements. And the same platinum in a 500-meter asteroid may turn out to be more than has been mined on Earth in its entire history. So why not try to get these resources? Cameron's initiative was joined by Google, The Perot Group, Hillwood and some other companies.
Japan plans in the very near future to build a so-called. "solar sail" ESAIL, which, thanks to the pressure of the sun's rays on its surface, will move through outer space at a speed of 19 kilometers per second. And this will make it the fastest man-made object in the solar system.
In April 2015, the Russian Space Agency announced its ambitious plans to build habitable bases on the Moon and Mars by 2050. At the same time, all significant descents within its framework will not be carried out from Baikonur, from the new Vostochny cosmodrome, which is currently under construction in the Far East.
Foreshadowing the further development of private flights to the Earth's orbit, the Russian company Orbital Technologies, together with RSC Energia, launched a project called Commercial Space Station to create the first hotel for space tourists. It is expected that its first module will be sent into space in 2015-2016.
One of the most promising areas for space exploration is the development of the idea of a space elevator, which could lift objects into the Earth's orbit along a cable. The Japanese company Obayashi Corporation promises to create the first such transport by 2050. This elevator will be able to move at a speed of 200 kilometers per hour and carry 30 people at the same time.
In Earth's orbit there is a huge number of old, exhausted satellites, which have turned into the so-called "space debris". And this despite the fact that the launch of only one kilogram of cargo there is an average of 30 thousand dollars. For this reason, the DARPA agency decided to start developing the Phoenix space station, which will catch old satellites and collect new, functioning ones from them.
In February, SpaceX carried out the launch of the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. The head of the company, Elon Musk, is considered to be a genius and a "visionary", but even his fantasies of colonizing Mars pale in comparison with the projects that are already being worked on with might and main.
Miners on a meteorite
Making money in space is a relatively new idea. It is difficult to count on the fact that big business will be interested in purely scientific research, so the future of the space industry lies precisely in the increase in commercial projects - after all, the development of the expanses of America was also dictated not so much by a craving for knowledge as by a thirst for profit.
Mining on an asteroid is the most daring and ambitious of all possible ideas to enrich oneself at the expense of extraterrestrial resources. The most striking example of the emergence of a new industry is the American companies Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources, for whose projects the Luxembourg government has allocated $200 million.
According to existing projects, mining on asteroids will take place in several stages: the discovery of potentially "interesting" celestial bodies, conducting remote analysis / sampling, and, if the asteroid is found to be "worthy", mining on it.
Mining resources on a meteorite isn't just a fantasy: Planetary Resources' Arkyd-6 probe was successfully orbiting Earth earlier this year. It is a kind of module that will work out the technology for detecting celestial bodies potentially suitable for development. Further, the company plans to launch the Arkyd-100 into orbit, a full-fledged satellite fully equipped to detect meteorites, after which Arkyd-200 and Arkyd-300 will be sent directly to the celestial body, the purpose of which will be reconnaissance in close proximity to the celestial body.
After these preliminary preparations, it is planned to send mining ships operating in automatic mode to the celestial body. The first experience of space drilling, according to forecasts by Planetary Resources, humanity will be able to boast by 2030.
What is the benefit of the industrial development of asteroids? Firstly, they can extract water and water-containing substances - the necessary raw materials for the production of rocket fuel directly in space.
And secondly, such celestial bodies can contain a lot of elements that are extremely rare on Earth. For example, the asteroid 2011 UW158, which flew past our planet in 2015, contained $ 5 trillion of platinum.
Lunar funeral
Man is not eternal, and his path after life must be reconsidered in the space age. In any case, the Elysium Space company is convinced of this, which plans to offer the service of sending the ashes of the dead to the moon.
Instead of looking down at our feet, remembering our loved ones and friends, we can look up to the eternal wonders of the night sky, knowing that people dear to us are always with us, the company's website says.
In order to take advantage of an unusual service, the company has developed special mini-urns, where a part of the ashes is placed, which is then launched into space.
Elysium Space offers two options for "space burial": the first, at a price of $2,500 called "Shooting Star", involves the transfer of the ashes into Earth's orbit, where it will spend about two years and will be available for real-time tracking using a smartphone application. The second is the delivery of the ashes to the moon, where it will rest "for all eternity."
The launch date of the Star II spacecraft, which will put mini-urns into orbit, is not specified, while the Lunar I probe should rush to the Earth's satellite as early as 2019.
Drone and submarine on Saturn's moon
Unlike the projects and companies discussed above, the US aerospace agency NASA focuses more on research missions, which, as it turns out, require more and more imagination and courage. Such projects include sending a drone and a submarine to Saturn's moon Titan - celestial body, on which, as scientists, the emergence and development of life is most likely.
The Dragonfly project was developed at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and is one of two finalists in the New Frontiers solar system exploration program competition for the best space mission design.
Unlike standard wheeled rovers, the Dragonfly is a flying probe that travels through Titan's dense atmosphere using propellers that lift the craft above the moon's surface.
Another distinctive feature of the project is that the probe will operate on a nuclear power plant.
On the surface of Titan are rivers, lakes and entire oceans made up of hydrocarbons. The study of the mysteries of the satellite of Saturn is unthinkable without diving into this abyss.
That is why NASA plans to create and equip a "space submarine". The project is being led by scientists from the University of Washington, who have recreated the conditions that the spacecraft on Titan will encounter in order to investigate the possible impact of the satellite's little-known environment on the spacecraft.
In particular, scientists have already managed to find out that "hydrocarbon reservoirs" freeze at a temperature of -198 ° C, which means that the chance that the submarine will collide with the likeness of an iceberg is minimal - this greatly simplifies the task of designing a submarine, which is scheduled to be launched to Titan in the coming years. 20 years.
First interstellar flight
The search for life or its signs within the solar system is one of the priorities modern science, but this does not mean that humanity forever refuses to fly to the stars.
The Breakthrough Starshot initiative, by Russian billionaire Yuri Milner and renowned British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking, involves sending nanosatellites on laser sails to Alpha Centauri, the closest star system to the Sun.
Alpha Centauri is about 4.37 light years away. Nanosatellites, unlike large ships, will be able to overcome huge interstellar distances due to their ultra-low mass at a much higher speed - about 20% of the speed of light.
To translate the project into reality, Milner allocated $100 million. The necessary technologies do not yet exist, but, according to scientists, humanity has every opportunity to reach Alpha Centauri before the end of the 21st century.
space elevator
One of the most ambitious projects of the future, which will radically and forever change the fate and approach of humanity to seeing itself, is the space elevator.
The idea of a space elevator was first formulated by the Russian scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky. Conventionally, a space elevator is a structure on which the cable is held at one end on the surface of the planet, and the other - at a fixed point relative to the Earth in orbit.
The center of mass of such an elevator should be at an altitude of about 36 thousand kilometers. The elevator cable must be made of a material that has an extremely high ratio of tensile strength to specific gravity - the most suitable material for building a space elevator is carbon nanotubes, often called the material of the 21st century.
Nevertheless, the technology of obtaining nanotubes in industrial quantities and their subsequent interlacing into a cable is only just beginning to be developed.
Why did the space elevator appear on the list of ambitious, but still more or less close projects?
Obayashi promises to have a space elevator by 2050.
Once again, Hollywood pushed humanity to space exploration: after the film "The Martian" was shown, probably every second gardener wanted to grow his own potatoes on the surface of the Red Planet. And after Interstellar, many schoolchildren and students became eager toengage in the exploration of boundless space for the benefit of mankind. Well, such dreams are getting closer to reality!
Space exploration starts on Mars
One can endlessly criticize the governments of countries for the fact that we still have not been fully engaged in space exploration and have not moved to Mars, because if there were no wars and confrontations dividing peoples and scientists, humanity would have gone far ahead, but this is a controversial judgment .
Space exploration began and developed due to the rivalry between the USSR and the USA over the years. Now, when " cold war” is a thing of the past, the need for projects such as, say, relocation to Mars is being questioned. In search of funding for their projects, scientists must go through bureaucratic hell, conduct a lot of research and calculations, and most importantly, present to the sponsor (be it a state, corporation or individual) the commercial or defense prospects of their project.
Space exploration is the concern of the commonwealth of countries
Nevertheless, space exploration does not stand still, but rather attracts new participants to its endless expanses of opportunities and discoveries. In addition to veterans of this field, such as the USSR, the USA, China and the European Union, India, Japan, Spain and the famous private company Elon Musk - SpaceX are currently launching.
The main stages of future space projects for space exploration
Roscosmos is looking for life on Mars
Let's talk about the plans of the largest participants, the first of which will be Roskosmos. The object of enduring interest of researchers is the Red Planet. Despite the landing failure of the Schiaparelli lander ( Schiaparelli) October 19, 2016, the ExoMars project continues to function. Its main task remains the search for life on Mars. The second phase of the program is planned to be implemented in 2020. During the six-month journey of the rover, equipped with a unique drilling rig, it is planned to take rock samples at a depth of up to 2 meters.
Europe conducts space exploration jointly with Russia
The ExoMars program, as well as the equipment of the rover, is international. As René Pischel, head of the European Space Agency in Russia, noted, joint work is a necessary condition for successful missions. Until 2020, it is planned to deliver the Spektr-RG space observatory, consisting of 2 telescopes of Russian and German production, into the Earth's orbit.
Roscosmos, having ordered the relevant research, once again revived the idea of landing a man on the moon by 2030, however, as company representative Igor Burenkov noted, while maintaining such low funding this project will not be implemented. In total, more than 12 launch vehicles are planned to be launched in 2017.
The second major participant in the joint exploration of space is NASA. Naturally, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration could not stay away from the study of the Red Planet. Just like Roscosmos, NASA plans to launch its own rover in 2020. It should be noted right away that the advantage of his programs lies in the competitive selection of instruments for missions, and competition, as we know from the course of economics, contributes to raising quality.
NASA plans to launch its telescope, called TESS, this year, 2017. Its main task will be the discovery of previously unknown exoplanets. A special place in the plans of the Office is occupied by the study of Europa, a satellite of Jupiter. At this object, covered with ice, scientists plan to find signs of life.
In the future, flexible robots will fly to the planets
The difficulty is the development of a special apparatus capable of deep and long immersion in an unfavorable environment. At the moment, in the long-term plans for the future there is a project to develop a special flexible robot, resembling an eel in shape, which will receive energy for its work from magnetic fields. A plan for using the robot for its intended purpose has not yet been developed, because it still needs to prove its suitability on Earth.
Long March 2F rocket (Chang Zheng 2F) from the Shenzhou-8 manned spacecraft at the launch pad of the Jiuquan Cosmodrome. Center.DLR / wikimedia.org (CC BY 3.0 DE)
China - hidden space dragon
China does not intend to stop at such significant successes in the economy, now its goal is space. China's space program, which started back in 1956, cannot boast of significant success, but it certainly has ambitions. Since 2011, the program for launching the first Chinese multi-module space station Tiangong-3 into orbit has been systematically carried out.
At the moment, the Tiangong-1 base module and the Tiangong-2 space laboratory have been launched, the main task of which is to conduct tests and prepare the output of the Tiangong-3 modules. Whether the Chinese space project will be able to compare with the Mir station and the ISS (where China, by the way, is not represented due to US opposition) will be known in 2022.
Japan will produce solar energy in space
Japan, despite the failure of the mission to clean the Earth's orbit from space debris in December 2016 and the fall of the smallest launch vehicle in January 2017, plans to implement one of the largest and most significant programs - the creation of an orbiting satellite by 2030. Thanks to photocells that convert photons into electricity, it will be able to collect and send solar energy to Earth.
According to the ideas of the futurists, it should have a large number of solar panels. Naturally, while maintaining a significant amount of orbital debris, the implementation of this project will face a number of problems related to the strength and durability of the structure.
Mask's ships always return
A new, but already declared, participant in space exploration is SpaceX, led by billionaire Elon Musk. The first three launches of the Falcon-1 rocket could put an end to the history of the company, but already in 2015 it received a contract to supply the necessary supplies to the ISS, for which it developed the Dragon spacecraft capable of returning to Earth.
floating spaceport
SpaceX has also successfully implemented a project to land the first stage of a launch vehicle on a floating platform. This should reduce the cost of space launches. The company is also actively developing space tourism, the money from which goes to further development. Of particular interest is the development of an interplanetary transport system that will allow in the future to transport people and cargo to Mars.
From inflating space ambitions to working together for everyone
At the moment, there are no ambitious programs to create a "Death Star" or "terraforming" (the formation of conditions suitable for human habitation) the surface of nearby planets, but space exploration is moving at its own pace. One cannot but rejoice at the fact that private companies are included in the process, capable of dispersing blood through the veins of the old space guard, and the development of private excursion flights, which can open the way for additional financial flows into the field of research of the boundless "Black Sea".
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